Friday, November 16, 2007

CBO Projects Health Care Costs Could Reach 49% of GDP by 2082

In a November 2007 CBO Study, "The Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending," the CBO suggested that, in the absence of changes in federal law:
  • Total spending on health care would rise from 16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007 to 25 percent in 2025, 37 percent in 2050, and 49 percent in 2082.

  • Federal spending on Medicare (net of beneficiaries' premiums) and Medicaid would rise from 4 percent of GDP in 2007 to 7 percent in 2025, 12 percent in 2050, and 19 percent in 2082.

"In 2005, the most recent year for which data are available, national spending on health care totaled nearly $1.9 trillion, or 14.9 percent of the nation’s GDP. Some 55 percent of the total was financed privately, and the rest came from public sources (see Table 1). Payments by private health insurers were the largest component of private spending, accounting for 37 percent of national health expenditures. Consumers’ out-of-pocket expenses, which include payments for deductibles and copayments for services covered by insurance as well as payments for services not covered by insurance, accounted for 13 percent of national health expenditures. Other sources of private funds, from philanthropy and on-site clinics that some employers maintain for their workers, accounted for 4 percent of the total.

Federal spending on Medicare accounted for 18 percent of national health expenditures in 2005, while federal and state spending on Medicaid accounted for 17 percent. A variety of other public programs accounted for 10 percent of national health expenditures, including ones by state and local health departments, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Defense; workers’ compensation programs; and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program."



Read CBO Study